Shelter Activation Outlook
3 of 4 regions meet criteria tonight. 3 of 4 regions meet criteria at some point this week.
7-day county view
| Region | Tonight | Fri 13 | Sat 14 | Sun 15 | Mon 16 | Tue 17 | Wed 18 | Plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Humboldt Arcata · overnight | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Clear | Criteria met | Criteria met | Open Thu 12 to Sun 15 4 nights |
| Eureka Eureka · overnight | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | No opening expected No night meets criteria in the next 7 days |
| Eel River Valley Fortuna · overnight | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Clear | Criteria met | Criteria met | Open Thu 12 to Sun 15 4 nights |
| Southern Humboldt Redway · day center | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Clear | Criteria met | Criteria met | Open Thu 12 to Sun 15 4 days |
Northern Humboldt
Current summary
Persistent multi-day rain is the deciding factor for Northern Humboldt this week. Thursday through Sunday and Tuesday through Wednesday all meet criteria because of accumulated rainfall across multiple consecutive days. Thursday is also borderline on wind, with sustained speeds reaching 29.9 mph, just 0.1 mph under the 30 mph threshold. Monday is the only clear night, breaking the rain sequence before it resumes Tuesday. Open the Arcata overnight center Thursday through Sunday for four nights.
Eureka
Current summary
Lows and wind thresholds determine whether the Eureka overnight shelter opens. No night from Thursday through Wednesday meets criteria. Thursday comes closest on gusts at 49.5 mph against a 40 mph sustained-wind threshold, but gusts do not count toward activation. All lows remain well above 33 degrees, wind chills stay above 33 where present, and rainfall stays under one inch each night. No opening is expected this period.
Eel River Valley
Current summary
Persistent rain across multiple days is the deciding factor for the Eel River Valley this week. Thursday through Sunday all meet criteria due to multiple days of rain, with Thursday also close to the sustained wind threshold at 25.3 mph against a 30 mph limit. Monday is clear with no rain and no threshold concerns, breaking the streak. Tuesday and Wednesday return to met status again on multiple days of rain, but fall outside the current activation window. The shelter in Fortuna opens Thursday night and runs through Sunday night for four consecutive nights.
Southern Humboldt
Current summary
The multiple-days-of-rain criterion drives all activation decisions for Redway this period. Thursday through Sunday all meet criteria on that basis, with no individual thresholds triggered, though Friday comes close on sustained wind at 25.3 mph against the 30 mph threshold and on rainfall at 0.76 inches against the 1-inch threshold. Monday is clear with no criteria met or approached. Tuesday and Wednesday meet criteria again through multiple days of rain, with Tuesday borderline on temperature at exactly 36 degrees against the 34-degree threshold. The day center will open Thursday through Sunday, four days total.
How criteria are evaluated
- Overnight centers are judged on their overnight window and day centers on their open hours, both in Pacific time and shown on each card.
- Rain is totaled over each region's rain window, which can differ from the overnight window (Eureka counts 4 p.m. to 4 a.m.).
- Wind uses sustained speed, not gusts. Gusts are charted for context.
- Wind chill uses the NWS formula and only counts when sustained wind is 10 mph or more.
- With rain (for the cold-with-rain rule) means 0.05" or more in the window. Multiple days of rain means 0.10" or more on two consecutive 8 a.m. to 8 a.m. days.
- Watch means within 2°F, 5 mph, or 0.25" of a threshold. The plan bridges a single Watch night between Criteria met nights.
- Each region uses the worst hourly value across its forecast points.