Shelter Activation Outlook
No center meets criteria tonight. First openings are likely Thursday. 3 of 4 regions meet criteria at some point this week.
7-day county view
| Region | Tonight | Thu 12 | Fri 13 | Sat 14 | Sun 15 | Mon 16 | Tue 17 | Plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Humboldt Arcata · overnight | Clear | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Clear | Clear | Open Thu 12 to Sun 15 4 nights |
| Eureka Eureka · overnight | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | No opening expected No night meets criteria in the next 7 days |
| Eel River Valley Fortuna · overnight | Clear | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Clear | Watch | Open Thu 12 to Sun 15 4 nights |
| Southern Humboldt Redway · day center | Clear | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Criteria met | Clear | Watch | Open Thu 12 to Sun 15 4 days |
Northern Humboldt
Current summary
Multiple days of rain is the trigger for Northern Humboldt this week. Thursday through Sunday all meet criteria because persistent rain across that stretch activates the multi-day rain threshold, and the shelter opens Thursday night. Wednesday is clear with no rain and mild temperatures. Monday and Tuesday are also clear, with rain totals and temperatures staying below trigger levels despite some wind on Tuesday. The shelter opens Thursday and runs through Sunday, four nights total.
Eureka
Current summary
No single threshold drives the plan this week because no night meets criteria. Wednesday and Thursday are well clear, with mild lows and negligible precipitation. Friday brings 0.58 inches of rain and a wind chill of 45.6 degrees, and Saturday and Sunday carry moderate rainfall, but all remain above every threshold. Tuesday is the closest call, with a wind chill of 38.6 degrees and 0.57 inches of rain, still short of the 33-degree wind chill and 1-inch rain limits. No opening is expected for Eureka this week.
Eel River Valley
Current summary
The multiple-days-of-rain rule is the deciding factor this week for the Eel River Valley. Thursday through Sunday all meet criteria because rain persists across consecutive days in the forecast window. Thursday is also borderline on sustained wind, with speeds reaching 25.3 mph against the 30 mph threshold. Wednesday and Monday are clear. Tuesday is on watch because rainfall of 0.77 inches approaches but does not reach the 1-inch threshold. The shelter opens Thursday and runs through Sunday for four nights.
Southern Humboldt
Current summary
The multi-day rain pattern is the deciding factor for Southern Humboldt this week. Thursday through Sunday all meet criteria due to multiple consecutive days of rain, with Friday also triggering the one-inch rain threshold at 1.29 inches. Wednesday and Monday are clear. Tuesday is borderline, with a forecast low of 37 degrees and light rain, just one degree above the 36-degree rain threshold. The Redway day center will open Thursday through Sunday for four days.
How criteria are evaluated
- Overnight centers are judged on their overnight window and day centers on their open hours, both in Pacific time and shown on each card.
- Rain is totaled over each region's rain window, which can differ from the overnight window (Eureka counts 4 p.m. to 4 a.m.).
- Wind uses sustained speed, not gusts. Gusts are charted for context.
- Wind chill uses the NWS formula and only counts when sustained wind is 10 mph or more.
- With rain (for the cold-with-rain rule) means 0.05" or more in the window. Multiple days of rain means 0.10" or more on two consecutive 8 a.m. to 8 a.m. days.
- Watch means within 2°F, 5 mph, or 0.25" of a threshold. The plan bridges a single Watch night between Criteria met nights.
- Each region uses the worst hourly value across its forecast points.